The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.12.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1287
• Prev Close: 1.1338
• % chg. over the last day: +0.45%

Eurozone annual inflation accelerated to 4.9% in November from 4.1%, it’s well above the 4.5% forecast and above the ECB's target. Pressure is now building on the ECB on future monetary stimulus, as the ECB initially did not plan to cut the PEPP program until spring 2022.

• Support levels: 1.1230, 1.1168
• Resistance levels: 1.1350, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is still bearish, but yesterday the price made an attempt to break out of the priority change level but failed to consolidate above. The MACD indicator became inactive. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the priority change level of 1.1371. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame, given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1371 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
• – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Chair Powell Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Treasury Secretary Yellen Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3307
• Prev Close: 1.3301
• % chg. over the last day: -0.05%

After analysts reduced their forecasts on the Bank of England rate hike, the British pound lost some ground against the Euro. But unlike the ECB, the Bank of England plans to raise the rate soon, so fundamentally, the British pound can quickly strengthen.

• Support levels: 1.3307
• Resistance levels: 1.3360, 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685, 1.3748

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive but is still signaling divergence on several time frames. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average. Buy trades should be considered on the support levels of higher time frames, given the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3385 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 113.51
• Prev Close: 113.18
• % chg. over the last day: -0.29%

Japan's manufacturing PMI index shows growth, indicating a gradual recovery from the pandemic. The Japanese Yen at the moment does not have any fundamental factors for strengthening in the mid-term prospect, so analysts expect the growth of USD/JPY quotes at least till the spring of the next year.

• Support levels: 112.87, 112.30
• Resistance levels: 113.79, 114.48, 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. At the moment, the price is trading in the corridor with the 112.87-113.79 range. Under such market conditions, it is best for traders to look for sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average or from the upper border of the corridor. Buy positions should be considered from the false breakdown zone formed yesterday when the price tried to move down.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 114.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2736
• Prev Close: 1.2777
• % chg. over the last day: +0.32%

Oil prices continue to decline amid news that a new variant of the Omicron virus is resistant to vaccines, adding to fears that there could be an excess of supply in the first quarter of next year. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the CAD is falling sharply against the dollar amid a drop in oil.

• Support levels: 1.2729, 1.2646, 1.2598, 1.2571, 1.2483, 1.2416, 1.2388
• Resistance levels: 1.2807

From a technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but buyer pressure remains high. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the lower border of the flat corridor. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2646 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2021.12.01

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.