The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.1034
- Prev Close: 1.1028
- % chg. over the last day: -0.05 %
The US economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter. GDP data for the quarter showed growth of 1.1% with a forecast of 2.0%. The slowdown in GDP growth mainly reflected weak inventory investment. A number of European countries, including Germany, will release their GDP data today. Also, Germany will release inflation data, and the US will release the PCE Price report, which is on the US Federal Reserve's list of monitored inflation indicators. Inflationary pressures in Germany are expected to begin to ease, and GDP is expected to rise slightly.
- Support levels: 1.0993, 1.0895, 1.0830, 1.0803, 1.0770, 1.0680
- Resistance levels: 1.1038, 1.1075, 1.1185
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price has corrected to the buying zone and is forming a narrowing liquidity. As a rule, such a formation occurs before a sharp impulse movement. The MACD indicator is in the negative area but without any signs of bearish pressure. Under such market conditions, it is best to consider buying deals from the support level of 1.0993 but with confirmation because the level has already been tested. It is also possible to buy after the impulse breakout of the 1.1038 resistance level. Sell positions can be considered from the resistance level of 1.1038 or 1.1075, but only with a confirmation in the form of a false breakout and short targets.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0963 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
- – French GDP (q/q) at 08:30 (GMT+3);
- – French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
- – Spanish GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- – Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – German GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- – US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2461
- Prev Close: 1.2497
- % chg. over the last day: +0.29 %
After yesterday's US GDP data, which showed weaker growth than initially expected, the Fed is projected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points next week, and this is likely to be the last hike in the cycle. This is a good sign for the British pound as the Bank of England is planning 2-3 more 0.25% interest rate hikes, which will reduce the differential in rates between the US and UK central banks.
- Support levels: 1.2466, 1.2420, 1.2391, 1.2343, 1.2320, 1.2267, 1.2178, 1.2112
- Resistance levels: 1.2514, 1.2528, 1.2643
From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. Yesterday the price made a false breakdown of the support level, which will now act as a buying zone. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone again, but the buyers' pressure is weak. It is better to buy from the support level of 1.2466 but with confirmation in the form of a bullish initiative. Sell trades are best looked for on intraday time frames from a resistance level of 1.2514 or 1.2528 but with confirmation in the form of a change of structure on the lower time frames.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2386 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
The USD/JPY currency pair
- Prev Open: 133.63
- Prev Close: 133.98
- % chg. over the last day: +0.26 %
There was no surprise. The Bank of Japan left the interest rate unchanged, as well as keeping its yield curve control policy unchanged, and is considering a comprehensive review of past monetary policy easing decisions. The policy report indicates that a sharp move to roll back quantitative easing could create huge problems for Japan's regional banks and exacerbate global market conditions. After the meeting, the Japanese yen is expected to fall as it is unclear when the Bank of Japan will move toward monetary policy normalization.
- Support levels: 133.95, 133.11, 132.70, 132.02, 131.82, 130.62
- Resistance levels: 134.72, 135.11, 136.07, 137.91
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price has reached the resistance level, but confirmation on the intraday time frames is needed to sell. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and there are signs of buyer strength. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals from the support level of 133.95. The best option for a sell entry would be the resistance level of 135.11 but with confirmation in the form of a false breakout and a change in the structure on the lower time frames.
Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below the 133.11 support level, the downtrend will be resumed with a high probability.
- – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 08:00 (GMT+3);
The USD/CAD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.3637
- Prev Close: 1.3590
- % chg. over the last day: -0.34 %
Oil prices stabilized on Thursday, offsetting some losses from the previous session after OPEC+ indicated that it sees no need for further production cuts. But the current situation is that demand for oil ahead of summer is not as strong as expected. In terms of supply and demand dynamics, the oil market appears to be somewhere near equilibrium. But fundamentals (lower inventories, OPEC+ production cuts, summer season, Chinese economic recovery) indicate that oil has all the prerequisites for growth.
- Support levels: 1.3563, 1.3468, 1.3448, 1.3409, 1.3341, 1.3267
- Resistance levels: 1.3647, 1.3695, 1.3814
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The moving averages support the trend. The price is forming a narrow flat. The MACD indicator is in the negative area but without any signs of seller pressure. It is best to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.3563 but with confirmation. Sell deals better to look from the resistance level of 1.3647 or 1.3695, but only with a confirmation in the form of a false breakout.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates below the support level of 1.3409, the downtrend will likely resume.
- – Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
by , 2023.04.28
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