The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.0792
- Prev Close: 1.0830
- % chg. over the last day: +0.35 %
The US Federal Reserve expectedly left rates unchanged yesterday but predicted further rate hikes at the next meetings. The rate forecast for 2023 was raised to 5.6% (at least two more increases), and for 2024 the rate is expected to be 4.6%. The 2023 core inflation forecast was raised to 3.9%, and the unemployment forecast was lowered to 4.1%. As a result, the US Fed is taking a pause, but it is a more hawkish pause as the probability of a hike at the next meeting has risen from 25% to 72%.
- Support levels: 1.0785, 1.0719, 1.0688, 1.0659, 1.0634
- Resistance levels: 1.0836, 1.0862, 1.0904, 1.0956
The EUR/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame has changed to bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but the divergence remains, with sellers starting to take over the initiative. There is a high probability of a corrective movement. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.0785 or 1.0719, but only with additional confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0836 but with confirmation in the form of a change in the structure on the lower time frames.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the support level of 1.0719 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
- – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Interest Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2606
- Prev Close: 1.2661
- % chg. over the last day: +0.44 %
The UK GDP rose by 0.2% last month. But industrial production data was weak. Production and manufacturing fell by 0.3% in the last month. This is not yet a critical drop, but the decline itself points to problems in the sector. The Bank of England still intends to hold two more rate hikes before ending its tightening cycle.
- Support levels: 1.2538, 1.2486, 1.2421, 1.2391, 1.2349
- Resistance levels: 1.2677
From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there is a cumulative divergence effect. Buyer pressure is decreasing. There is a high probability of a corrective move down. The most optimal level for buy is 1.2538 but with confirmation. It is better to look for sell deals from the 1.2677 resistance level but with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the support level 1.2486 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
The USD/JPY currency pair
- Prev Open: 140.16
- Prev Close: 140.08
- % chg. over the last day: -0.05 %
The Japanese yen fell to a 7-month low in Asian trading today. Traders have shifted their attention from the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements to the Bank of Japan meeting tomorrow. Last month, when the yen fell to a similar level in the government, there was talk of intervention. The hawkish stance of the Fed on Wednesday contrasts sharply with the policy of the Bank of Japan, which has a soft monetary policy, and this disproportion gives the dollar an advantage over the yen.
- Support levels: 140.23, 138.94, 138.80, 138.00, 137.54, 136.52, 135.66
- Resistance levels: 141.24, 142.45
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the levels of moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone with no signs of reversal. To buy, it is best to wait for a slight correction, as the price is technically overbought. It is best to use the support level of 140.23 but with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 141.24 but with confirmation in the form of a bearish initiative. At the moment, there is no sellers' initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below the 139.32 support level, with a high probability the downtrend will resume.
The USD/CAD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.3311
- Prev Close: 1.3321
- % chg. over the last day: +0.08 %
Crude oil prices fell more than 2% on a sharp increase in crude stocks. The data showed a sevenfold increase in inventories compared to last week. The Federal Reserve's warning that it may resume hiking rates in July after it left rates unchanged this month also lowered the risk appetite in the markets. The Canadian dollar lost some ground yesterday amid a rising dollar and falling oil prices.
- Support levels: 1.3293, 1.3263
- Resistance levels: 1.3344, 1.3384, 1.3461, 1.3503, 1.3589, 1.3647, 1.3667
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair in the medium term is bearish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages and has reached the resistance level. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but the divergence remains on several time frames. There is a high probability of a corrective upward movement. It is better to buy from the support level of 1.3293, but only with confirmation in the form of the buyers' initiative on the lower time frames. It is better to look for sell deals after a false breakout of the 1.3344 resistance level or 1.3384 but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3384, the uptrend will resume with a high probability.
by , 2023.06.15
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