The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.0566
- Prev Close: 1.0501
- % chg. over the last day: -0.62 %
The dollar index rose by 0.36% on Wednesday, reaching a 10-month high. The dollar was supported by Wednesday's stronger-than-expected report on new US capital goods orders for August, which helped push the 10-year T bond yield to a 16-year high and strengthened the dollar's interest rate differential. The strengthening dollar put negative pressure on the euro. In addition, a bearish factor for EUR/USD was the decision of five German economic institutions to downgrade their forecasts for German GDP for 2023 from growth to contraction. In addition, weaker-than-expected consumer confidence figures in France and Germany also had a negative impact on the European currency.
- Support levels: 1.0482
- Resistance levels: 1.0547, 1.0614, 1.0624, 1.0673, 1.0697, 1.0713, 1.0736, 1.0768
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. Narrowing liquidity has led to a downward impulse. Now, the price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone. Selling pressure remains, but the price has approached the daily support level. Selling can be looked for after a pullback to the resistance level at 1.0547, subject to a reverse reaction. Buying can be looked for from the support level of 1.0482 but with confirmation in the form of buyers' reaction.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.0673 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2157
- Prev Close: 1.2747 1.2134
- % chg. over the last day: -0.19 %
The British pound continues to decline amid the dollar rally. The outlook for the pound is not bright as the economic situation in the UK is very fragile, with hints of contraction. Meanwhile, the interest rate differential between the Bank of England and the US Fed is also not in favor of the pound. Therefore, the growth of the pound is now possible only on the weakness of the US dollar.
- Support levels: 1.2112
- Resistance levels: 1.2198, 1.2368, 1.2424, 1.2461, 1.2503, 1.2547, 1.2611
According to technical analysis, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly timeframe is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and there is a divergence, but the selling pressure remains. Selling can be looked for only on intraday time frames and only with short targets, as the price has reached the daily support level. Buying can be considered after breaking the descending trend line and price fixing above the moving averages. Buy deals can also be considered from the support level of 1.2112 provided the buyers' impulsive reaction.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2424 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
- Prev Open: 148.99
- Prev Close: 149.62
- % chg. over the last day: 0.42 %
- Support levels: 149.06, 148.87, 147.78, 147.32, 147.02, 146.76, 145.88, 145.39, 145.00
- Resistance levels: 149.92
- Prev Open: 1900.50
- Prev Close: 1876.66
- % chg. over the last day: -1.27 %
- Support levels: 1854.17, 1843.69
- Resistance levels: 1885.64, 1901.05, 1910.40, 1921.31, 1928.93,1933.94, 1941.56.
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
The divergence in the positions of the leading central banks continues to have a negative impact on the yen: the Bank of England, ECB, and the Fed are tightening monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan keeps interest rates at record lows and stimulates the economy. The yen extended this week's losses on Wednesday and fell to an 11-month low against the dollar. The price has maxed out near the 150 level, which could trigger government intervention to support the exchange rate.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and price pullbacks are very weak, which indicates the strength of buyers. The MACD indicator is positive, momentum is ascending, and there are no signs of reversal. Trades in the continuation of the uptrend should be sought from the moving averages but with confirmation. Sell trades can be looked for after the price tests the resistance level of 149.92. At the moment, market conditions point to the continuation of the uptrend to 149.92
Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the support level of 147.32, the downtrend will likely resume.
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
The dollar index rally to a 10-month high on Wednesday was bearish for metals prices. Gold fell to a 6-month low, and silver fell to a one-week low. Speculation that the Federal Reserve will take longer to raise interest rates is pushing up government bond yields, with which gold has an inverse correlation. In addition, gold prices are under pressure from the liquidation of long positions after the volume of long positions in gold ETF funds updated the minimum again on Tuesday.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to a downtrend. Yesterday, gold plummeted. Buyers failed to hold any level. The price confidently broke through all support levels and is now trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone with signs of oversold but no signs of reversal. Under these market conditions, it is best to look for selling from the moving averages with intraday confirmation. There are no entry points for buying right now.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks above the resistance level at 1928.93, the uptrend will likely resume.
by , 2023.09.28
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