The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.0715
- Prev Close: 1.0697
- % chg. over the last day: -0.17 %
Tuesday's comments from the US Fed officials eased speculations that the Fed has stopped raising interest rates and were bullish for the USD. The dollar's strength on Tuesday had a negative impact on the euro. In addition, weaker-than-expected Eurozone economic news on Tuesday was negative for the euro: German industrial production for September fell more than expected, and the S&P German construction PMI for October contracted more than forecast.
- Support levels: 1.0686, 1.0668, 1.0634, 1.0609, 1.0557, 1.0522, 1.0495, 1.0483
- Resistance levels: 1.0726, 1.0768, 1.0826
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but the buyers are retaking the initiative. Buying can be sought from the support levels of 1.0668 or, in case of a deeper decline, from 1.0668. Falling below 1.0634 is undesirable as it will start to change the sentiment, and then the uptrend will be jeopardized. Selling should be considered after testing the resistance level of 1.0726, but with confirmation in the form of sellers' reaction.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks the support level of 1.0522 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2345
- Prev Close: 1.2747 1.2298
- % chg. over the last day: -0.38 %
Last night, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said that UK inflation is likely to fall sharply in the coming months and that the current market pricing in an interest rate cut next year is not "unreasonable." The market now prices the possibility of an interest rate cut next year at 0.75%. The latest S&P Global CIPS Services data showed that the UK economy contracted for the third month in a row, and GDP data is expected to be released on Friday, which will show that the UK economy is at a low level and heading towards a technical recession.
- Support levels: 1.2288, 1.2231, 1.2156, 1.2133
- Resistance levels: 1.2371, 1.2427, 1.2504
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. At the moment, the price is correcting to the nearest support level. The MACD indicator became negative, and there is weak selling pressure during the day. Buying should be sought from the support level of 1.2288 or, in case of a deeper price decline, from the 1.2231 level. A breakout of the downtrend line can be used as confirmation. Sell trades can be looked for after the sellers' reaction at 1.2371.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks the support level of 1.2123 and consolidates below, with a high probability the downtrend will resume.
- – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).
- Prev Open: 150.03
- Prev Close: 150.34
- % chg. over the last day: +0.21 %
- Support levels: 149.84, 149.16, 148.96, 147.32, 147.02, 146.76
- Resistance levels: 150.66, 150.86, 151.71
- Prev Open: 1977
- Prev Close: 1969
- % chg. over the last day: -0.40 %
- Support levels: 1965, 1967, 1963, 1953
- Resistance levels: 1971, 1979, 1990, 2004, 2009
- – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
The yen declined moderately on Tuesday amid a stronger dollar after hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve made it less likely that the Fed tightened monetary policy. In addition, weaker-than-expected Japanese economic wage news was dovish for BOJ policy and negative for the yen after real money income in Japan declined more than expected.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is still bullish. On Friday, the price corrected to the support area, where buyers showed a reaction to the 149.16 level. The MACD indicator returned to the positive territory, with intraday buying pressure. The price has now reached the resistance area where sellers may show activity. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered intraday from the 149.84 support level, but with confirmation. For selling, the resistance level of 150.66 or 150.86 can be considered, but only with confirmation in the form of the sellers' reaction.
Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the support level at 148.96, the downtrend will likely resume.
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
The strengthening of the dollar on Tuesday put pressure on metal prices: gold fell to a 2-week low, and silver fell to a 3-week low. Gold seems to be becoming less sensitive to events in the Middle East and is regaining its dependence on government bond yields. Gold has an inverse correlation to bond yields, so during the strengthening of the US dollar, bond yields rise, which has a negative impact on gold quotes.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to an upward trend, but it is close to changing. Yesterday, the price tested liquidity below the priority change level but failed to consolidate below. Buyers reacted, but the 1971 resistance level could be a stumbling block for resuming the upward movement. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving average lines, and the MACD indicator remains negative. Under these market conditions, buying could be considered after testing the 1965 support level, subject to buyers' reaction to the level. A move below 1963 will change the priority of this time frame. For selling, resistance level 1971 can be considered, but with confirmation intraday.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 1963, the downtrend will likely resume.
by , 2023.11.08
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