The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.0945
- Prev Close: 1.0947
- % chg. over the last day: +0.02 %
The Euro got a little support at the end of the day after the representative of the ECB Governing Council, Dr. Joachim Nagel, said that it is too early to talk about rate cuts, that inflation is still too high, and that markets are sometimes too optimistic. Nevertheless, financial markets continue to forecast a series of ECB rate cuts this year, with the first 25 bps rate cut expected at the April meeting.
- Support levels: 1.0908, 1.0864, 1.0827
- Resistance levels: 1.0938, 1.0985, 1.1010, 1.1037, 1.1080, 1.1097, 1.1171
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is a downtrend. The price broke through the support level of 1.0938 on an impulse move, and the pressure on sellers is resuming. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is negative and indicates further decline. The price consolidation below 1.0908 will open the way to 1.0864. Buying can be looked for from the support level of 1.0908, but only with confirmation and short targets, as the level has already been tested several times. Selling can be considered from 1.0938 but subject to sellers' reaction to the level. If the price consolidates above 1.0938 and reverses the consolidation from where the decline started, a false breakdown down will be formed, which could lead to a sharp rise in price.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.1037 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2728
- Prev Close: 1.2726
- % chg. over the last day: -0.02 %
Labor market data will be released in the UK today. On the back of lower inflationary pressures over the past two months, a strong labor market report could keep the pound from falling. A weak labor market with falling inflation will have a strong negative impact on the British currency. Special attention should be paid to the wage figures. Wage growth, as a rule, is accompanied by a rise in inflation in the following months.
- Support levels: 1.2672, 1.2611, 1.2572, 1.2548, 1.2499
- Resistance levels: 1.2712, 1.2787, 1.2827, 1.2881, 1.2937
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price failed to consolidate above the priority change level despite multiple tests. Moreover, the price has formed an impulsive downward movement, and there are preconditions for further decline, especially if today's labor market data is weak. The MACD indicator also points to the downward momentum. Buy deals should be sought from the support level of 1.2672 but with confirmation in the form of buyers' reactions and short stop-losses. A breakdown of 1.2672 will open the way to 1.2611. Selling is best considered from 1.2712 or from the moving average lines.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2787 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will be resumed with a high probability.
- – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2).
- Prev Open: 144.95
- Prev Close: 145.72
- % chg. over the last day: +0.53 %
- Support levels: 145.55, 144.25, 143.41, 142.18, 141.12, 140.78, 140.25
- Resistance levels: 145.97
- Prev Open: 2047
- Prev Close: 2054
- % chg. over the last day: +0.34 %
- Support levels: 2049, 2042, 2030, 2023, 2015, 2008, 1997, 1987, 1973
- Resistance levels: 2064, 2072, 2084, 2090, 2142
- – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
The Japanese yen is holding near 145-146 per USD and continues to slowly lose ground as investors await this week's inflation data to determine the Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook. Nevertheless, the yen remains near a one-month low as expectations that the BOJ will soon raise interest rates faded this month after policymakers backed away from those rates, saying they need to see solid inflation growth backed by wage growth.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price has returned to growth without reaching the support level of 144.25. Moving averages again support the price, and the MACD indicator indicates an upward momentum. Under such market conditions, buying should be sought from the support level of 144.35 or after price consolidation above 146.50. Selling can be considered within the correction from the resistance level of 146.50, but only with confirmation and short targets.
Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the support at 141.87, the downtrend will likely resume.
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
Gold rose above the $2,050/oz mark on Monday, rising for the third consecutive session as escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for metals as a "safe-haven" asset, while an unexpected drop in US producer inflation data boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, which is positive for precious metals. Do not forget that gold has an inverse correlation to the US government bond yield, which in turn reacts to inflation and the Fed's monetary policy.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. At the moment, the price corrected to the support level of 2049, but there were no buyers' reactions, which increases the probability of a deeper correction. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be looked for from 2049, but only with confirmation, as a breakdown of this level will open the price way to 2042 or even 2030. Selling can be looked for after the breakdown of 2049, but only with short targets to the nearest levels.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 2013, the downtrend will likely resume.
by , 2024.01.16
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