The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.0842
- Prev Close: 1.0883
- % chg. over the last day: +0.37 %
Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its first monetary policy meeting on Thursday. All last week, ECB officials were unanimous in their opposition to an interest rate cut anytime soon. They have partially succeeded in dampening those expectations, but it should be understood that interest rates will be cut by almost 100% this year. The only question is when. The swaps market believes that there is about a 15% chance that the ECB will change its policy in March. A first-rate cut is fully predicted for April. There is no chance of a policy change at this meeting, but ECB President Lagarde's press conference at 15:45 will play an important role in shaping expectations going forward. If there are clear signals about the timing of the rate cut, it could lead to a strong price imbalance — the longer the ECB holds rates, the stronger the euro will be against the US dollar.
- Support levels: 1.0871, 1.0843, 1.0851, 1.0827
- Resistance levels: 1.0906, 1.0931, 1.0985, 1.1010, 1.1037, 1.1080.
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is a downtrend. Yesterday, the price attempted to consolidate above the priority level, but sellers, this time, protected their positions. A retest of 1.0915 is likely to lead to a change of trend. At the moment, the price has corrected to the support level of 1.0871. If the buyers react here, we can expect a retest of 1.0915. A breakdown and consolidation below 1.0871 will open the way to 1.0843.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0915 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
- – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
- – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2671
- Prev Close: 1.2724
- % chg. over the last day: +0.42 %
The British pound rose to $1.28 against the dollar and hit a near five-month high against the Euro as stronger-than-expected PMI data bolstered the case for the Bank of England to move slowly towards lower borrowing costs. The latest PMI survey showed that activity in the UK private sector grew by the most in seven months, while services sector growth accelerated to its strongest rate since May last year.
- Support levels: 1.2667, 1.2638, 1.2611, 1.2572, 1.2548, 1.2499
- Resistance levels: 1.2730, 1.2764, 1.2827, 1.2881, 1.2937.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. Similar to the euro, yesterday, the price tested the level of priority change but failed to consolidate above it. At the moment, the price is corrected to the nearest support level. The price consolidation above 1.2730 will open the way to 1.2764 with a probable further breakout. A false breakout of 1.2730 will provoke a new wave of sell-offs to 1.2667.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2764 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
- Prev Open: 148.32
- Prev Close: 147.50
- % chg. over the last day: -0.55 %
- Support levels: 146.97, 146.39, 145.45, 144.33, 143.41, 142.18
- Resistance levels: 147.63, 148.51, 149.33.
- Prev Open: 2028
- Prev Close: 2012
- % chg. over the last day: -0.79 %
- Support levels: 2018, 1997, 1987, 1973
- Resistance levels: 2024, 2036, 2044, 2064, 2072, 2084, 2090.
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
The yen strengthened to a one-week high against the dollar on Wednesday. Signs of a strengthening Japanese economy boosted the yen after Wednesday's trade news showed that Japanese exports rose the most in a year in December. In addition, rising Japanese government bond yields supported the yen after the 10-year JGB yield rose to a 6-week high on Wednesday.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. Yesterday, the price retested the support level at 146.97, where the buyers once again showed initiative. The price liquidity gap is filled, hence, the price should not return to 146.97 if the buyers want to continue rising. Buying now can be sought from the 147.63 level with a short stop loss. Targets are the same — updates of 148.51. If the price fixes below 147.63, a deeper correction will likely start.
Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the support at 144.33, the downtrend will likely resume.
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
Gold held below the $2,020 per ounce mark on Thursday, near its lowest levels in a week, as investors remained cautious ahead of key US economic data releases and the European Central Bank's policy decision. The S&P 500 Index rallied to a new record high on Wednesday, limiting demand for precious metals and pressuring gold prices. In addition, gold is under pressure from the continued liquidation of long positions by funds after long positions in gold ETFs fell to a 4-year low on Tuesday.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to a downtrend. The resistance level of 2036 became a stumbling block for gold. Buyers failed to consolidate above. Moreover, sellers impulsively drove prices below 2024, creating a balance that will now act as an additional resistance. Buying can be sought intraday from 2018 with a target of 2024. A price move below 2014 will open the way to refresh the month's low.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above the support level of 2049, the uptrend will likely resume.
by , 2024.01.25
We recommend you to get acquainted with the daily overview of the news feed.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Open Account