The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.0831
- Prev Close: 1.0826
- % chg. over the last day: -0.05 %
During the first quarter of 2024, the European currency declined by almost 2% against the US dollar after the European Central Bank changed its dovish stance. On Wednesday, ECB board spokesman Piero Cipollone said that the ECB is becoming increasingly confident in the prospect of inflation returning to its 2% target by mid-2025 as wage growth slows, bolstering the case for lower interest rates. Investors now expect an ECB rate cut in June, although opinions are divided on whether two or three more cuts will follow before the end of the year. Meanwhile, the dollar maintained its recent gains as investors reduced their expectations of the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut in response to strong US economic data and cautious statements from central bankers.
- Support levels: 1.0810, 1.0794
- Resistance levels: 1.0843, 1.0864, 1.0886, 1.0923, 1.0936, 1.0953, 1.1000
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. Volatility on the eve of the Easter holidays is decreasing. Now, the price is trading below the moving averages. Sellers have built 3 selling zones and put pressure on the price to test the liquidity below 1.0795. Therefore, during the day, it is better to focus on selling. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.0923 and consolidates above, with a high probability the uptrend will be resumed.
- – Eurozone German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2627
- Prev Close: 1.2636
- % chg. over the last day: +0.07 %
The British pound declined by 0.70% against the US dollar over the quarter amid dovish signals from the Bank of England, indicating a gradual weakening of inflation and economic weakness. At its March meeting, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% and maintained its inflation and growth outlook. However, two policymakers who had previously favored a rate hike moved to a hold position, tilting the central bank's decision to a more dovish stance than expected. The final GDP data for the quarter is due today in the UK. It is predicted to fall by 0.3%, which could put additional pressure on the pound sterling.
- Support levels: 1.2613, 1.2583, 1.2560
- Resistance levels: 1.2648, 1.2672, 1.2709, 1.2765, 1.2803
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. Now that the price is trading at the level of moving averages, a flat accumulation is formed in the buying zone. As a rule, liquidity accumulation in the zone is a harbinger that the area will be broken. Therefore, there is a high probability that the price will continue to decline to renew the low of the week. For sellers, a price above 1.2648 is not desirable. Otherwise, buyers will be able to seize the initiative intraday.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2803 and consolidates above it, the downtrend will likely resume.
- – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2).
- Prev Open: 151.51
- Prev Close: 151.24
- % chg. over the last day: -0.17 %
- Support levels: 150.83, 150.34, 149.91, 148.91, 148.58, 148.01, 147.06
- Resistance levels: 151.53, 151.90
- Prev Open: 2177
- Prev Close: 2195
- % chg. over the last day: +0.82 %
- Support levels: 2194, 2185, 2160, 2149, 2157, 2131, 2110, 2080, 2057
- Resistance levels: 2200, 2250
- – Eurozone German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
The yen rebounded from a 33-year low against the dollar on Wednesday. It strengthened speculation that the Japanese authorities may be preparing to intervene in the currency markets to support the yen after the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan, and the Financial Services Agency held an unscheduled meeting. The yen's rapid fall came amid speculation that the BoJ's monetary policy will remain accommodative for some time despite the recent turn to negative rates. The likelihood of intervention by the authorities remains.
From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price reached the resistance level of 151.90, where sellers showed the initiative. The price has overcome the first buying zone and formed a selling zone. With a high probability the price will continue the corrective movement within the uptrend. Intraday, we can consider selling from 151.53 with a target of 150.84. For sellers, it is desirable not to let the price consolidate above 151.50. Otherwise, the upward rally will continue. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 150.34, the downtrend will likely resume.
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
Gold held just below the $2,200 per ounce mark on Thursday, near all-time highs. Gold gained support on Wednesday thanks to dovish comments from ECB Governing Council representatives Kazaks and Cipollone and ECB Executive Board representatives. Meanwhile, Fed spokesman Christopher Waller said yesterday that the central bank may refrain from cutting interest rates in June amid strong inflation data. The probability of a Fed rate cut in June is around 60%, up from around 70% last week.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, the price bounced from the trend line on the impulsive initiative of buyers. At the same time, buyers formed 2 more zones to support the growth. But so far, all this is happening within the selling zone of the higher timeframe. There is an assumption that the price is driven as high as possible to make a profit, taking tomorrow on PCE news before the holidays, which will lead to a sharp drop in price. Right now, gold is rising along with the dollar index, which is a market anomaly. It is essential for sellers not to let the price consolidate above 2200 otherwise the rally will continue.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks below the support at 2149, the downtrend will likely resume.
by , 2024.03.28
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