The most important meeting of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy and interest rates will take place this week. The main question is whether the rate will be raised by 0.75% or 1%. Right now 80/20 probability in favor of a 75 basis point increase. The world's biggest companies are reporting: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. At the end of the week, there will be a lot of data on the Consumer Price Index and GDP from different countries. While much of this will be retrospective, it may still hint at what will happen with the economy and the central bank's behavior.
Monday, July 25
On Monday, investors should focus on the Germany Business Climate from the Ifo institute. Investors should also pay attention to the inflation rate in Singapore. Analysts are predicting a rise in consumer prices to 6.2% (current 5.6%) in annual terms.
Main events of the day:
- - Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
- - Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, July 26
On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the Japan Monetary Policy Protocol. Traders won't see anything new there, but the volatility of currency pairs with the Japanese yen will increase.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, July 27
On Wednesday, investors will focus on the FOMC Statement and the Fed Interest Rate Decision. Analysts predict a 0.75% interest rate hike. But there is a 20% chance that the rate will be raised by 100 basis points at once. Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, in some ways, will be more important as the market tries to gauge the possibility of a recession and how committed the Fed will be to curbing inflation if that recession begins. Volatility in pairs with the US dollar could spike. Traders should also pay attention to the Durable Goods Orders Data, which is on the Fed's list of inflation indicators. If the data is worse than expected, it will increase the probability of a 1% rate hike. Traders should also not miss the Inflation Data from Australia, where consumer prices are expected to rise further.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, July 28
On Thursday, investors should pay attention to prelim US GDP Data for the quarter. Analysts predict a 0.4% rise. But if the data point to a slowdown, US officials may announce the beginning of a recession.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, July 29
Friday will be very rich in economic events. The main data investors should focus on the preliminary inflation and GDP Data for European countries and the Eurozone in general. Also, traders should keep a close eye on the PCE Price Index, which is a more important indicator of inflation for the US Federal Reserve than CPI.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone French GDP (q/q) at 08:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Spanish GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone German GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2022.07.25
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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