Investors will focus this week on FOMC minutes to get clues whether the US Federal Reserve will raise rates again next month or will take a pause. US personal income and spending data and the PCE Price Index, which the Fed considers adjusting policy, will also be important economic data. The UK and Europe manufacturing PMI data should also focus on the list. Investors should also closely monitor the New Zealand Reserve Bank meeting as the RBNZ is not yet finished with monetary policy tightening. And, of course, traders should not forget the burning issue of the US debt ceiling. If politicians do not reach an agreement by June 1st, the US could default.
Monday, May 22
On Monday, traders should focus on Asian indices as China and Hong Kong will release influential data. The US session should focus on the FOMC officials' speech. It's a bank holiday in Canada.
Main events of the day:
- – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
- – Hong Kong Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 17:50 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 17:50 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, May 23
Tuesday will bring various Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI statistics for many countries. This data will show how the economy works in a period of high-interest rates. Analysts predict that the data will show an increase in manufacturing activity.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone French Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Richmond Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, May 24
On Wednesday, investors will focus on the FOMC minutes and the New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision. Analysts predict a 0.25% interest rate hike from RBNZ. Volatility in pairs with the New Zealand dollar could spike. As for the FOMC minutes, all analysts will be examining the report for clues on whether the Fed plans to raise rates at the June meeting. If the report shows that it will depend on new data, it will increase the likelihood of another hike. UK inflation data should also be on the sheet for traders. Economists expect the long-awaited easing of inflationary pressures.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).
Thursday, May 25
On Thursday, investors should pay attention to US GDP data for the quarter. Analysts predict a 1.1% economic growth, which would indicate a robust economy. If the actual data are worse than forecast, it will increase the likelihood of a pause by the Fed for the June meeting. Investors should also take a close look at the weekly US labor market report.
Main events of the day:
- – German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, May 26
The most important Friday release is the US PCE Price Index, which is on the Fed's list of inflation indicators for regulating monetary policy. Analysts expect a slight increase, which is undesirable for stock indices. It's a bank holiday in Hong Kong.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2023.05.22
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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