This will be the most economically rich week of the month and maybe of the whole quarter. The world's leading central banks (US Fed, ECB, BoE, SNB, and Norges Bank) will hold monetary policy meetings. All central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged, so investors' main focus will be on central banks' bias regarding further policy — whether to hold or lower rates. The US inflation data on Tuesday will shed light on the Fed's plans, which will set the tone for US indices and stocks for the rest of the year and beyond. In addition, leading countries will release Manufacturing PMI and GDP data.
Monday, December 11
Before the week fills up with economic events, Monday is expected to be a quiet trading day. The only event traders should pay attention to is Norway's inflation data. The inflation rate is expected to rise from 6% to 6.3% year-on-year, which may positively impact the Norwegian krone, as Norges Bank is still hawkish and ready to raise rates further.
Main events of the day:
- – Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, December 12
On Tuesday, traders will mainly focus on the US Consumer Price Index data. Analysts expect US inflation to continue slowing and fall from 3.2% to 3.1% y/y. This will increase the likelihood that the US Fed will cut rates as early as next spring-summer. In the UK, data on the labor market will be published. The main focus of attention will be on the average wage data, where a 0.3% decline is expected, which will be a dovish factor for the Bank of England policy. And in Japan, the producer price report will be released. The importance of this report is that this index shows the inflation rate between producers and is a precursor to consumer prices in the future.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 00:20 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, December 13
On Wednesday, all investors will focus on the Fed Interest Rate Decision. The US Federal Reserve will almost certainly leave its rate unchanged as the US economy slows down and inflation steadily declines. Therefore, investor's focus will be on how soon the Fed will start cutting rates. But Fed Chairman Powell knows how to "scare" the market, so if he sets a hawkish tone at the press conference, it may give temporary confidence to the USD. Investors should also be focused on the US Producer Price Index. In monthly terms, producer inflation is expected to rise by 0.1%. This will not change investors' expectations but will increase volatility in USD currency pairs. UK GDP and industrial production data for October will give an updated picture of the economy. The economy is expected to contract by 0.1% on a monthly basis, while quarterly growth is expected to slow from 1.3% to 0.6%.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Tankan Manufacturing (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Non-Tankan Manufacturing (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2);
- – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2);
- – New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Thursday, December 14
Thursday will be the busiest day in terms of economic events. The main events of the day will be the meetings of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB). All banks are expected to keep rates at current levels, but the BoE may remain more hawkish on policy, while the ECB and SNB may shift to a more dovish bias. The ECB may cut rates as early as March-April next year due to falling Eurozone economic indicators. In Switzerland, annual GDP growth stalled in the third quarter, with inflation stuck below 2%. Also, on this day, there will be a meeting of the central banks of Hong Kong and Norges Bank. No surprises are expected, but volatility in HKD and NOK currency pairs will increase accordingly. Investor interest may also be piqued by Australian labor market data. The RBA remains hawkish, and strong labor market data will leave room for the RBA to further tighten policy.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision at 04:30 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2);
- – Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – Norwegian Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
- – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+2);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, December 15
Friday will see the release of a big bundle of economic data on China, which has a strong influence on the Asian market. The impact of Beijing's numerous measures should start to show up in real sector data, except in the real estate market. On a year-on-year basis, industrial production and retail sales are likely to have improved. However, real estate investment and residential real estate sales continue to hurt the overall dynamics. Investors should also keep an eye on the Manufacturing and Services PMI data from many countries, which often determines the health of an economy. In European countries, indicators are expected to increase, while in the United States, a decline in business activity is predicted.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+2);
- – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – China NBS Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
- – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 19:25 (GMT+2).
by , 2023.12.11
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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