It's going to be a busy week. The major central banks begin their first meetings of 2024, and the People's Bank of China (PBoC), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of Canada (BoC), Norges Bank, and ECB will be the first to meet. PMI data will show how the global economy is doing at the start of the year. Traders should not forget about the situation in the Middle East, where the growing geopolitical situation has a strong impact on oil and gold prices. In addition, a number of data on the US economy will be released this week, namely the GDP data for Q4 last year, as well as the PCE deflator, which is the preferred inflation indicator for the US Fed. Also, the US reporting season for the 4th quarter of last year should not be missed: Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), and Intel (INTC) are expected to report this week.
Monday, January 22
China's Central Bank will update key interest rates on Monday. No changes are expected, but against the backdrop of lower economic activity during the deflationary period, the PBoC may announce additional stimulus, which will have a positive impact on Asian indices.
Main events of the day:
- – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, January 23
Tuesday's main event will be the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain all monetary policy settings and point out the importance of seeing steady inflation growth or at least wage growth. This is likely to hurt the Japanese Yen. Another event to watch out for is the New Zealand inflation data. New Zealand publishes this data once a quarter, so the volatility on currency pairs with NZD increases. Inflation is expected to fall from 1.8% to 0.5%.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 04:30 (GMT+2);
- – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 04:30 (GMT+2);
- – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
- – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Richmond Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, January 24
Wednesday will bring various Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI statistics for many countries. This data will indicate how business activity was in contraction territory at the beginning of the year in most of the world. But the main event of Wednesday, of course, is the Bank of Canada's monetary policy meeting. Like other G10 central banks, the Bank of Canada is not yet ready to cut rates. The Bank is expected to keep the rate at 5%. Volatility in currency pairs with the Canadian dollar will increase.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- – Canada BoC Press Conference at 18:00 (GMT+2).
Thursday, January 25
The European Central Bank holds its first policy meeting in 2024 on Thursday amid speculation of rate cuts. With a high probability the ECB will keep the rate at 4.5%. Much will depend on what Lagarde says at the press conference. If there are hints of a rate cut soon, the EUR may appreciate it. Conversely, if it is not time to cut rates yet, the euro may get additional support. The US Advance GDP for the quarter will also be at the center of investors' attention on Thursday. Analysts expect to see a slight increase in GDP indicators. Market participants should also pay attention to the US Initial Jobless Claims, which indicate the dynamics of the labor market and are closely monitored by the Fed. It’s a bank holiday in Australia.
Main events of the day:
- – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – Norwegian Norges Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
- – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+2);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, January 26
The most important Friday release is the US PCE price index (Personal Income and Spending), which is also on the Fed's list of inflation indicators. Following the CPI and PPI reports, economists expect the core PCE deflator to fall below 3% for the first time since March 2021. The decline in the indicator may trigger new rumors of an imminent rate cut from the US Fed, which could put pressure on the dollar index. Japan will publish data on consumer prices in the Tokyo region, which is a leading indicator of the nationwide CPI. Further decline in inflation will put pressure on the yen. It’s a bank holiday in Australia.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- – US PCE price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
by , 2024.01.22
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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