Week's main events (February 05

In terms of economic events, this week will be much calmer than the previous one. The main events of the week will be the meeting of the Central Bank of Australia, inflation data in Germany and China, and speeches by representatives of central banks. The RBA is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its first meeting of the year. Comments from the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and US Fed officials will be closely watched by investors. Concerns about rising tensions in the Middle East will also remain at the forefront after the United States launched retaliatory strikes late Friday against Iran-backed militants in Iraq and Syria following a drone attack in Jordan last weekend that killed three US service members. Also, traders shouldn’t forget about the US and European earning seasons.

Monday, February 05

The main event on Monday will be the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. In addition, traders should follow the data on business activity in the service sector in key economies.

Main events of the day:

– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– EurozoneProducer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);/li>
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

Tuesday, February 06

The main event on Tuesday will be the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting. The RBA is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its first meeting of the year on Tuesday after lower-than-expected fourth-quarter inflation prompted markets to postpone expectations of a rate cut until later in the year. Volatility on the currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Also worth paying attention to on Tuesday is New Zealand's labor market data, where unemployment is expected to rise sharply due to the pressure of high interest rates on the economy.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem’s Speech at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

Wednesday, February 07

On Wednesday, the main reports will be US and Canadian trade balance data. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. As a rule, if the actual data is better than expected, it has a positive effect on the exchange rate. Also, traders should not miss the US Crude Oil Inventories data, which has a significant impact on oil prices. However, concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East look set to remain front and center in terms of oil pricing.

Main events of the day:

– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

Thursday, February 08

Thursday, February 1 Thursday will bring various statistics for many countries. China will release inflation data, which is expected to show an increase in deflationary pressures. Economists expect the Consumer Price Index for January to come in at negative 0.5% versus negative 0.3% in the previous month. Volatility in Asian indices may increase. Investors should also pay attention to the US weekly report on the number of jobless claims as well as the inflation expectations in New Zealand that help predict the trajectory of the RBNZ interest rates.

Main events of the day:

– China Consumer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Producer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 19:05 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2)./li>

Friday, February 09

On Friday, traders will be closely watching the final monthly inflation data in Germany. Consumer inflation is expected to fall from 3.7% to 2.9% on an annualized basis. Traders should also keep a close eye on Canadian labor market data. It’s a bank holiday in China, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speak at 00:30 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price Index at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2024.02.05

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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Week's main events (February 05 – February 09)

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