During the last sessions, trades on major currency pairs are quite active. At the same time, a unidirectional trend is not observed. The dollar index (#DX) is testing monthly lows. Over the past two weeks, a key range of 94.60-95.00 has been formed. A number of weak economic reports, the collapse of the US stock market and the escalation of the trade conflict put pressure on the US currency. At the moment, financial market participants are expecting additional drivers.
This week a number of important statistics from the United States will be published, which will affect the balance of power in the currency majors in the short term. These reports may also affect the Fed's views on future monetary policy.
We recommend you to pay attention to the manufacturing index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which will be published on Thursday (15:30 GMT+3:00). This index determines the economic well-being of the manufacturing sector of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district and has a rather strong influence on the dynamics of the US currency. Experts expect that in October the figure will slow down from 22.9 to 20.0. We recommend considering the difference between the actual and the forecasted values.
- Support levels: 1.15400, 1.14650
- Resistance levels: 1.16000, 1.16450, 1.17250
At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is being traded in a flat. The technical pattern is ambiguous. The trading instrument is testing key support and resistance levels: 1.15400 and 1.16000, respectively. Indicators do not send accurate signals:
- The price has fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA;
- MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line.
We recommend opening positions from the key levels.
If statistics from the US turns out to be positive, we expect a further fall in the EUR/USD quotes. The movement is tending towards the local demand zone of 1.14650-1.14350.
An alternative could be the growth of the EUR/USD currency pair to the level of 1.16500-1.17000.
Confirmations and entry points to the market should be searched on lower timeframes. When following positions, we recommend using a trailing stop.
by , 2018.10.17
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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